Media Day XLI

Super Bowl Media Day always brings the goods one way or another. The combination of legit reporters, goofball reporters, overweight reporters, poorly dressed reporters and random hot Latina reporters creates an array of people seen nowhere else in America, with the possible exception of Las Vegas.

The combination of superstar players, role players, awful players, unknown players and straight up weird players all getting interviewed by that strange collection of reporters makes for a truly unique event.

A few highlights from Media Day XLI:

• Tank Johnson, who needed a judge’s permission to make the trip to Miami after being arrested on suspicion of ten separate gun charges, calling out reporters for labeling him a thug. He refused to answer L.A. Times columnist and “Around the Horn” panelist Bill Plaschke when he asked if Johnson was sorry for being arrested three times in a year and a half. Johnson did say this: “It's just the way I am. I'm young. I'm black. I've got tattoos. I've got dreads. It is what it is." Maybe it’s just me, but I think it’s more being caught with unregistered guns and 550 rounds of ammo that alters people’s perceptions of him. Johnson also said, “I don't like violence. I can't stand it. That's something that's glorified on TV so much. I'm not a violent person. Never been a violent person.” Congratulations, Tank, you were the star of the day.
• The random players who weren’t good enough to get podiums (only a dozen from each team got one) looking really uncomfortable as they were getting interviewed by equally random reporters. You know, the Alfonso Boones, Kyle Ortons and Jim Sorgis of the world.
• The aforementioned random hot Latina reporters, Ines Gomez Mont (picture #11) and Ines Sainz (picture #4) from TV Azteca. According to Michael Wilbon on PTI, everyone at Media Day, players and reporters alike, were trying to get the scoop on exactly why they were there. The general consensus is that they never really interviewed anyone, but did a few flirtatious fluff pieces and basically just walked around looking hot. Always a welcome addition.
• Rex Grossman being asked by 5,000 different reporters in 19,000 different ways and six different languages, what it feels like to be considered one of the worst quarterbacks in the history of the Super Bowl. An ex-girlfriend of his might as well call a press conference to announce his impotence. The embarrassment can’t get much worse.
• All of the players wearing their uniform pants and socks along with their jerseys. Maybe this has always been the case, but I just think it looks stupid. Why not let them wear jeans with the jerseys? If you’re going to make them wear the pants and socks, why not go the whole nine and add the shoulder pads, helmets, gloves, visors and everything else? Boo you, whoever it is in the NFL offices that makes them dress like that.

All in all, it was another wonderful Super Bowl Media Day. Pointless questions galore, lots of scrubs just happy to be there with cameras, and of course, random hot Latina reporters. A great omen for the greatest sporting spectacle of the year.

David’s 15 Thoughts & Predictions on College Basketball

The Sporting Itis has not said anything yet about the college basketball season. Well, as a mid-season report of sorts, I have a few thoughts about the year so far, and predictions of how it will all shake out.

1. This group of freshmen is possibly the best class ever. With Kevin Durant (Texas), Greg Oden and the "Thad Five" (OSU), Brandan Wright (UNC), Thaddeus Young/Javaris Crittenton (GT), and others making a large impact on the success of their programs, the youth are making names for themselves on the national stage. The David Stern rule, keeping many of them in school for at least a year has worked so far in the college game. If most of them stay in school for more than just a year or two, they will finally replenish the well of talent that had been relatively dry for the past few years in college basketball.

2. The Pac-10 is on the rise. With the 2nd highest Conference RPI (only behind the ACC) and 5 teams in the Top 25 (UCLA, Oregon, Arizona, Washington State, and USC), this conference’s depth can no longer be questioned. Barring unforeseen injuries, UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona will go far in the NCAA Tournament with their experienced stars.

3. The race for the Big Ten has already been determined between Wisconsin and Ohio State, with Indiana still having a chance. It’s the classic match-up of Wisconsin’s senior-laden squad against talented youth of the Buckeyes. The Badgers already won a close one in Madison, 72-69. When this game is played in Columbus on 2/25, however, the Buckeyes will come on top as a result of the others finally gelling with Mr. Oden. The Badgers will get the last laugh in the Big Ten Championship game in Chicago, a place where a little big game experience can go a long way. It will also be the venue where Alando Tucker makes his push for National Player of the Year (see below).

4. For an incredibly young squad, Duke doesn’t look half bad. With wins over Georgetown and Gonzaga early in the year, and a close, although disputed win over Clemson, the Blue Devils are still a solid team. But, they haven’t played the toughest teams yet. The upcoming stretch against Boston College, Virginia, Florida State, UNC, and Maryland will define their season. Over this stretch, Duke will go 2-3 and prove that they may not be able to contend with the top of the crop just yet.

5. Aaron Brooks (Oregon), Drew Neitzel (Michigan State), Randolph Morris (Kentucky), and Mario Boggan (Oklahoma State) are four of the most improved players in the country. After his poor junior season, Brooks is one of the best point guards in the country, scoring 18.4 points, 4.7 assists, and 3.9 rebounds per game. He will be a 1st team All-American, along with Boggan.

6. Roy Hibbert, the next great big man to come out of Georgetown hasn’t been talked about much after his preseason feature on the cover of Sports Illustrated. He has scored a modest 11.8 points and 5.8 rebounds, but has 2.5 blocks and is shooting an incredible 70% from the field. His most recent outing against Cincinnati – 26 points and 11-rebounds on 11-13 shooting from the field – should bolster his performance in the 2nd half of the season, where he will challenge Aaron Gray (Pitt), Russell Carter (Notre Dame) and Demetris Nichols (Syracuse) for Big East Player of the Year.

7. UConn is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament after their 4-game losing streak in Big East play. They have a current record of 13-7 (only 2-5 in the Big East Conference). If they don’t receive an NCAA bid, it will be only the 4th time in 18 years that this has happened. They will squeak into the tourney this year but next year the Huskies will be back in full force competing for a championship.

8. LSU is also struggling in the SEC with a 13-6 record (2-3 Conference), but everything is alright as long as a trimmed down Glen “Big Baby” Davis keeps performing at a high level. The recent loss to Vanderbilt hurts, but LSU will be fine. Expect them to make noise again in the tournament.

9. Once again, Memphis has an impressive regular season record, but this season the team tested itself against the likes of Arizona, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Gonzaga. Regular season games against these perennial powers will help the team as it advances to the postseason.

10. Nevada, Butler, Southern Illinois, George Washington, and Akron have excelled as mid-majors this year. Unfortunately for this batch, there will be no George Mason this year. There is too much talent at the top.

11. Juan Palacios (Louisville), Greg Paulus (Duke), and Jeff Green (G’Town) have been three of the biggest disappointments of the season. Their draft stocks will drop due to poor play.

12. The Big 12 has the best set of coaches in the country. When you look at the top half of the conference, the teams feature coaches with the likes of Bob Knight, Rick Barnes, Bob Huggins, Bill Self, Sean Sutton, and relative unknown Billy Gillispie (Texas A&M) – all of which are at the top of their profession. Kansas features arguably the best starting lineup in the NCAA, with guards, Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush and forwards, Darrell Arthur and Julian Wright all scoring in double figures. With six teams all within one game of the best record, the next month, the Big 12 will feature by far the most exciting regular season race. Key games will be Texas at Texas Tech on 1/31, Texas A&M at Kansas on 2/3, Oklahoma State at Texas on 2/12, Texas A&M at Oklahoma State on 2/21.

13. Kevin Durant currently is, and will be the National Freshman of the Year. Greg Oden will make a surge toward the end of the year, as his injured wrist will be healed, his offensive game will contintue to develop, and he can even decide whether he wants to shoot free throws right-handed or left-handed.

14. Alando Tucker is the midseason MVP, but Kevin Durant will also be the National Player of the Year, beating out Tucker, Boggan, and Tyler Hansbrough (UNC) a.k.a. “Psycho T”.

15. Florida, Wisconsin, UCLA, and UNC are the top four teams in the AP poll today. Looking at the proven leaders on these squads, all four teams will advance to the Elite Eight in March/April. Oh, and UNC will win the National Championship.


Now, let's see how wrong I am in two months.

NFL Mock Draft, Take 1

We here at The Sporting Itis haven't shown much profiency in predictions, so you should probably ignore this entire thing and just listen to Mel Kiper. He's got better hair anyways.

1. Raiders – JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU

The Silver and Black desperately need a quarterback to put the franchise back on track, and they love Russell’s huge frame and powerful arm to lead the rebuilding.

2. Lions – Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame

Jon Kitna has been serviceable, but he’ll turn 35 this season and is obviously not a long-term option. There’s a large talent dropoff at QB after Russell and Quinn, so the Lions will pull the trigger here.

3. Buccaneers* – Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech

The Bucs’ offense was terrible last year, and there’s no better way to improve it than by adding Johnson, the most talented player in this draft.

4. Browns* – Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin

The Browns’ efforts to improve the offensive line haven’t yielded great results yet, and Thomas is this year’s top tackle prospect. A perfect fit.

5. Cardinals – Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas

Arizona has a wealth of talented skill players on offense, but needs to address its offensive line and basically the entire defense. With Thomas gone, defense is the choice.

6. Redskins – Alan Branch, DT, Michigan

The D.C. Indigenous Persons' defense regressed last season, and lacks playmakers up front. Branch is a massive, athletic run-stuffer that they can build around from the inside out.

7. Vikings – Reggie Nelson, S, Florida

Minnesota was the best run-stopping team in the league last year, but they struggled against the pass. Nelson is a bit of a reach here, but fills a void in an otherwise excellent defense. They could also use a wideout, but may be a bit leery after taking Troy Williamson.

8. Texans – Adrian Peterson, HB, Oklahoma

Houston’s front office needs to make up for passing on Reggie Bush and Vince Young, and Peterson is the best way to do it. A native of Texas and a talented ballcarrier, he fits the bill in more ways than one.

9. Dolphins – Leon Hall, CB, Michigan

The Fish have a lot of holes, so basically any pick would be a good one. Hall is the most polished corner available, and should be able to start right away.

10. Falcons – LaRon Landry, S, LSU

Atlanta’s safeties are woeful against the pass, and were a major liability all year long. Landry is good enough to make an immediate impact in the running and passing games.

11. 49ers – Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC

The Niners have a nice core in place on offense with Alex Smith, Frank Gore and Vernon Davis. What they lack is a standout receiver, and Jarrett fills that slot. Ted Ginn could also go here.

12. Bills – Levi Brown, OT, Penn State

Terrance Pennington is starting for Buffalo at right tackle. Suffice to say offensive line is a major concern for the Bills.

13. Rams – Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson

The Rams have been looking to improve their defense since the millenium switch. Adams is an explosive pass rusher who should give them a real presence off the edge.

14. Panthers – Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State

Carolina has a great D-line and solid secondary, but they’re soft in between. Timmons is the best linebacker in this draft and a perfect fit for them.

15. Steelers – Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is better than their record showed last year and is pretty well set everywhere. They’ll likely go with the best player available here, though they could definitely use some more depth in the secondary.

16. Packers – Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal

The Packers are worse than their record showed last year and could use help basically everywhere. With Ahman Green always hurt and possibly out the door, they’ll make Lynch their new feature back.

17. Jaguars – Ted Ginn, WR, Ohio State

Wide receiver has been a problem for Jacksonville for years, and they’ll be hopeful that Ginn is finally the one that turns into a reliable #1 option.

18. Bengals – Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville

All the Bengals want this year is a guy who’s never been arrested. If he’s talented, that’s a nice bonus. Okoye fits the description, but he will be entering the league as a 20-year old rookie, so there’s still time for him to be corrupted.

19. Titans – Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia

The Titans simply lack playmakers on the defensive line, and Albert Haynesworth’s developing insanity certainly isn’t helping them out.

20. Giants – Daymeion Hughes, CB, Cal

The G-Men finished 28^th in the NFL in pass defense, so DB is an obvious need. Hughes’ speed leaves a bit to be desired, but he has great instincts and ball skills.

21. Broncos – Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia

Apparently the whole “bring in the entire crappy Browns d-line” plan didn’t work out as planned. Denver could also look at a DB after Darrent Williams' unfortunate passing.

22. Cowboys – Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska

Carriker is a big end at 6'6"/300, and will fit into the Cowboys’ 3-4 scheme. Dallas’ defense started the year as a strength, but turned into a weakness as the season progressed.

23. Chiefs – Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina

The Chieftains are in need of a top receiver, as Eddie Kennison just ain’t cuttin’ it any more. Rice is tall, rangy target with great leaping ability.

24. Patriots (from Seahawks) – Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State

New England’s DBs have been a problem since Ty Law left town and Rodney Harrison got old, and they’ll be glad to add some quality depth in McCauley.

25. Jets – Tank Tyler, DT, North Carolina State

The J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets! played far beyond expectations this year, but still have work to be done. Their run defense was suspect all year, and they need a big body in the middle.

26. Eagles – Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State

Philly needs an outside linebacker, and Posluszny is just that. He’s not terribly explosive, but is a smart, consistent, tough player who should certainly be productive.

27. Saints – Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi

The feel-good story of the year has ended, so now the Saints need to get back to work. The defense needs a lot of work, and Patrick “whatchu talkin’ ‘bout” Willis would be a nice pick at this spot.

28. Patriots – Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee

The rich get richer as the Pats pick again, and this time they’ll address their rather pathetic receiving corps. The image of Reche Caldwell’s eyes the size of dinner plates after dropping an easy catch against the Colts says it all.

29. Ravens – Kenny Irons, HB, Auburn

Jamal Lewis is on his way out, and the Ravens need to find their workhorse of the future. Irons isn’t as big or punishing as Lewis, but is a very talented, somewhat under-the-radar back.

30. Chargers – Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU

The only real problem with the Chargers offense is the wide receiver position. Bowe is a big, physical target who should provide a nice alternative to LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates.

31. Bears** – Michael Griffin, S, Texas

The Bears will probably take the best available player here, and though they’re already stacked on defense, Griffin is just that. An athletic tight end like Greg Olsen is also possible.

32. Colts** – Brandon Siler, LB, Florida

Indy needs help on defense, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. Siler is an athletic linebacker who should fit into Tony Dungy’s Cover 2 well.

* Pending coin flip
** Pending Super Bowl

Cleveland Browns Offseason - Part I

The Cleveland Browns recently hired Rob Chudzinski, a tight ends coach from San Diego, as their offensive coordinator. If the name sounds familiar, he was the tight end’s coach for the Browns in 2004, which means absolutely nothing but more importantly Chudzinski is from “The U” and coached Kellen Winslow and Jeremy Shockey in college. Working with former Chargers offensive coordinator and currently Miami Dolphins head man, Cam Cameron, Chudzinski helped develop one of the top offenses in the NFL that featured an All-Pro Tight End in Antonio Gates, who was under his personal tutelage. "Chud" will have his hands full, as the Browns are lacking in just about every position; the team has a pair of mediocre-to-bad quarterbacks, the line is both not very good and getting older, and the running back isn’t as good after signing that new contract. The defense also has much room for improvement. Chudzinski’s signing is a good cause to evaluate the current Browns players that will be instrumental in turning this team around.

Well, let’s take a look at some of the legitimately key players coming back (Warning, this list will be short due to the ineptness of members at the top of the organization, underachieving of our top draft picks, poor decision-making and overall lack of control from our coaches, plus the cold weather and negative portrayal of Cleveland – a rather lovely city, contrary to belief – which turns away top free agents…..or it could be as owner Randy Lerner stipulates, the fact that the Browns are still trying to overcome problems which arose from being an expansion team…in 1999, the year of the Rabbit):

Kellen Winslow Jr./II – Leading tight ends in receiving on one bum knee is no easy task. Winslow Jr./II finally proved his worth, considering the fact that if he’d underperformed/not performed this season, fans would’ve called for his head (at least those who hadn’t already called for his head after the motorbike ordeal. There is no expression called “popping an endo”). While his numbers were impressive, and had he caught a few more TD’s his Pro Bowl argument would have been just, Mr. Winslow will need to Step Up his game a little more next year and Stomp the Yard at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Remember, Antonio Gates is an All-Pro and he didn’t even play foosball in college. But Winslow’s all about this U! A 90-reception, 1,000 yard season is not out of the question, but even more importantly, his gaudy numbers will be a cause for at least one media blowup/fight with Joey Porter, and it will be justified. Joey Porter must think so, but hey, K2 is Not Gay, he is heterosexual.

Sean Jones – This past season, Jones was statistically one of the best safeties in the NFL (111 total tackles, 5 INT’s, 11 passes defensed, even half a sack) and by far the most improved player on this team. He’s from Atlanta, Georgia, a city that Wikipedia says is “considered a poster child for cities worldwide experiencing rapid urban sprawl, economic development, and growth,” such to say that Jones’ growth was predictable. Phil Savage must be a genius for discovering this. Atlanta is also the land of peaches and a place where some people say they’ll have a “coke” instead of a “pop” at a restaurant (“soda” is not an option for me, Clevelanders stand up!). Sean Jones will be a Pro Bowler next year if he keeps his own personal rapid urban sprawl going, and if the Browns win a few more games.

Kamerion Wimbley – The MVP of the Browns this year, with 62 tackles, 11 sacks and 1 Fumble Forced, this pass rushing specialist actually fit the need of the Browns not-so-vaunted 3-4 Defense. Let’s just hope that considering his age, he will keep progressing and refining his skills, and not suffer the Jamir Miller syndrome of having one monster year playing outside linebacker, wearing number 95, and fizzling out into the dreary Cleveland morning mist (don’t get me wrong, the city still is lovely…and as we speak I’m knocking on wood). Now all the team needs is a nose tackle, a pair of defensive ends, an outside linebacker, and a corner.

Joe Jurevicius – A silent team leader works best when he is playing alongside a bunch of good character guys (See: Marvin Harrison on Colts) or young players willing to follow. Being a silent team leader does not work when playing alongside stubborn, selfish players of…lesser character (see below). Once the pride of the Lake Catholic Cougars becomes a vocal locker room leader, he might elevate the game of his partners in crime.

Leigh Bodden – I have nothing. And he’s our #1 corner!

Since the well’s already dry, Braylon Edwards, LeCharles Bentley, Gary Baxter, and Joe Andruzzi get their own mention for all name, no production. Bentley wouldn’t be on this list had it not been for him being too greedy and going for the “00”. If Mr. "I just got Jacked Up by a Cornerback" (Reggie Bush, meet Sheldon Brown) can’t make his number less than 20, then you know you can’t, big boy. And Edwards, a man with the aforementioned lesser character, will get his chance to prove himself next year if he isn’t traded away first.

Here would be my first piece of advice for the Brownies to make some progress over the offseason: Do some research on these guys you’re drafting/bringing in thru free agency (Good character + Talent = Super Bowl). It’s your job! You get paid to do this!

And finally, You Just Got Served.

Late Signings Could Pay Off For Tribe

After the Indians signed Joe Borowski to solidify their bullpen most analysts expected the Tribe to go to Spring Training without making another big splash. Mark Shapiro maintained that there was room in the budget for one or two additional moves, but when he missed on power arm Octavio Dotel and former stud closer Eric Gagne even he admitted that chances of another signing were slim. In the last two weeks, however, Shapiro was able to add two big names to his roster, former Red Sox closer Keith Foulke and slugger Trot Nixon. Question marks surround both players, which allowed them to fall into the Indians' bargain bin, but they may make a big impact this season. Here's a look at what each player can bring to the Tribe this summer.

Keith Foulke, RP- The 34-year old Foulke is a former world champion who had one of the best October runs in history as the Red Sox closer in 2004. That postseason, his ERA was a microscopic 0.64 as he allowed only one run in 14 innings. Foulke's 2004 season capped a six-year run as one of the most dominant closers in the American League; from 1999-2004 his ERA was under three each year and he accumulated 171 saves. He never had a true power arm but was able to flummox hitters with a scintillating and at times unhittable changeup. 2005 brought Foulke a series of injuries (many credit manager Terry Francona for ruining Foulke's career by overusing him in the 2004 postseason; Foulke threw 257 pitches that October), first in his knees and later in his throwing arm. He lost his closer's job that year after he posted an ERA of 5.91. Last year was not much better as he had a 4.35 ERA as his arm tendinitis persisted. However, in the last month of the season, a finally healthy Foulke had eleven consecutive appearances without giving up a run, giving the Indians confidence that he could return to his old form. This move could certainly blow up in Shapiro's face if Foulke is injured again, but if Foulke can even be close to his old self he will give the Tribe the dominant closing presence it has lacked since the unhittable Steve Karsay/Paul Shuey combination of early 2001. It's a classic risk-reward acquisition, but the potential payoff could be huge and if healthy Foulke could put this team over the top.

Trot Nixon, OF- Nixon is a classic lefty slugger who in his prime was good for 20-30 homers and a high on-base percentage. Injuries and age have robbed him of some bat speed and his power and average have dropped, but as a platoon player he has excellent value. Although he only hit for a .268 average this past season with 8 home runs, he hit .288 against righties. Six of his eight home runs also came against right-handers. He is worthless against left-handed pitchers (.204 average) but with Casey Blake and Jason Michaels available to platoon he won't have to worry about facing them often. Nixon also boasted a robust .385 on-base percentage against righties, making him a legitimate threat to hit in the 2-hole. A noted leader with postseason experience, Nixon will be a major asset in the clubhouse and makes for a perfect complementary player for a contending team.

These two pickups could potentially have a huge impact on the Tribe's success this season, and since they have numerous other options in the bullpen and outfield, neither player is being counted on too heavily. If they bust it's not a major blow to Cleveland's hopes, but if they play well and the rest of the team comes together we could be looking at an October playoff run for the first time since 2001.

State of the Union: Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers recently returned from their seven game West Coast road swing. They finished 3-4, defeating the Kings, Clippers and Warriors (in OT), while falling to the Suns, Sonics, Blazers and Nuggets. As far as West Coast trips go, this one was relatively soft. Only the Suns can be considered an elite team, with Denver being the only other squad above the .500 mark, and still missing Carmelo "Stop Snitchin'" Anthony. Seattle and Portland are battling for last place in the Northwest Division, while the Clips, Golden State and Sac-town are 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th in the Pacific, respectively (it’s a 5-team division).

And the Cavs went 3-4.

This isn’t the kind of grueling road trip that the Cavs should be happy to finish near .500. If we’re to take this team and their lofty championship aspirations seriously, then they should be able to beat teams that, quite frankly, suck.

While the losses to subpar teams were bad, the whoopin’ they received at the hands of the Suns was the most disturbing. The game was nationally televised, billed as a high-profile showdown between two of the league’s top teams…and our heroes went out and laid a rather sizable wine and gold colored egg. The score was 109-90, but it looked a lot worse than that. The game was a classic example of balanced team working well together trumping a team that relied too much on their one superstar. Phoenix had five players in double figures, and seven with at least 8 points. Cleveland had two in double figures: LeBron James (34) and Drew Gooden (11).

Losses like the one to Phoenix make me question the current incarnation of the Cavaliers. Great teams shouldn’t get blown out in marquee games. And that’s the point: right now the Cavs aren’t great. They’re good, sure, but still a ways away from great. As of January 22 the Cavs were 24-17, good enough for second place in the Central Division and third place in the…sigh, I feel obligated to make the token crappy pun, Leastern Conference. So basically, assuming things continue roughly like they have, the Cavs will get a top-3 playoff spot and some degree of home-court advantage.

But…then what? As sad as the East is, I can’t see the Cavs reaching the Finals. They rely on LeBron far too much, and their offense usually turns into watching him play 1-on-5 or a simple pick-and-roll. While LeBron has shown that he can carry a team even with the odds stacked against him, the Cavs certainly have a ceiling when that’s the case. Second banana Larry Hughes has become so inconsistent that when he has a 20+ point game it’s a cause for celebration. Hughes has been a mild disappointment, as he was brought in with the expectation of taking the scoring burden off of LeBron on a nightly basis.

The supporting cast as a whole has been maddeningly inconsistent. Hughes, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Drew Gooden are all averaging between 10 and 15 points per game, but no one has stepped up as a reliable second option. Hughes spends much of his time on the injured list and has a shaky jump shot. Ilgauskas is talented, but possesses Mokeskian athleticism and struggles against top-tier defenders. Gooden is a great rebounder and gets a lot of garbage points, but isn’t an especially polished scorer. Anderson Varejao is pure energy, though occasionally misdirected. Eric Snow (who I’ve tried to defend while countless others have ripped him) has an entire cutlery set sticking out of his back, right down to the shrimp fork. Damon Jones and Donyell Marshall are nothing more than spot-up shooters, and streaky ones at that. Daniel Gibson looks like he can be a solid lead guard, but is a rookie learning on the job. Shannon Brown is getting splinters in his backside from riding the pine.

The moral of this story? The Cavaliers lack the balance across the board to be taken seriously as an NBA contender. LeBron is obviously an absurdly talented player, but his progress seems to have hit a plateau this season. His points, rebounds and assists are all down from last year, as are his field goal and free throw percentages. Unless he starts averaging a 40-10-10, this Cavs team isn’t going much further than it did last year.

Brief Update

Predictions have not gone so well for us here at the Sporting Itis. But, don't fret, this is not our specialty. ESPN writer David Fleming basically summarizes my thoughts about predicting games by saying, "would it really be that big a deal for people like me to once in a while just say: Look, I know enough about the NFL to admit I have no idea how this game is going to turn out. What's wrong with that? Is that so bad? It's the truth. Everything else is just Nick Saban. And in my mind, the unpredictable nature of the games is exactly what people love about sports in the first place." Sports "experts" are supposed to know this stuff, but seldom is there a person who is always right about his thoughts or insight. But, I was right on one thing...

Rex "Tex" Grossman is terrible!!!

Conference Playoffs: Bears vs. Saints

I'm going to keep this short, but sweet:

-Since Mike Brown has been out with an injury, the Bears' Defense hasn't played nearly as well as they were playing earlier in the regular season. Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush will make plays against this depleted D.
-Rex "Tex" Grossman is due for a BAD game, considering he's looking past this game to tonight's celebration party, not knowing that Da Bears actually have to win first (See: New Years Eve game vs. the Packers. "I was looking forward to later on tonight, I didn't prepare.")
-Drew Brees is due for a good game
-The Bears were who we THOUGHT they were!!
-America wants the Saints to win.

So, the Saints win, forget the weather!
28-17

Conference Playoffs: Colts vs. Patriots

The Patriots have owned the Colts over the past five years or so, much like the Yankees did to the Red Sox. Many pundits (read: mouth with microphone in front of it) feel that this is Indy’s version of the 2004 ALCS, a chance to exorcise their demons and advance for a chance at that elusive championship. They point to the excellent play of the Colts’ defense as of late, as well as this Patriots team being the weakest in recent memory. So is this it, the game in which the Horseshoes will triumph over the Patty Cakes; the game in which Peyton Manning finally beats Tom Brady in the playoffs; the game in which Tony Dungy topples Bill Belichick; the game in which Manning will break the record for most commercials starred in in one three-hour span?

I say no, no, no and yes, respectively.

The Colts have beaten the Pats in their past two meetings, but when it comes right down to it, I just can’t pick against Brady and Belichick in the playoffs. I hate ‘em both, but they handle their business on the biggest stages. And for the sake of nothing in particular, let’s break it down in a rigorous unsophisticated manner.

Colts O vs. Pats D
He’s played much like feces over the past two weeks, but Peyton “Cut that meat!” Manning has been the NFL’s most prolific passer for much of his career. Of course, that traditionally changes when he plays the Patriots, particularly in the playoffs. Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne make up the league’ best 1-2 receiving tandem, but what the Colts lack this year is a quality third receiver, unless you want to include receiver/old white guy Ricky Proehl or tight end Dallas Clark. And I don’t. Indy’s running game is a two-headed attack, or four-legged if you prefer, with rookie Joseph Addai and average Dominic Rhodes. The Patriots’ secondary is beaten up, with Rodney Harrison questionable, Eugene Wilson out and the likes of Chad Scott filling in the rest of the spots. The Colts should be able to rack up some nice yardage in the passing game, but Belichick’s schemes always seem to force Manning into a couple crucial mistakes.

Pats O vs. Colts D
Tom Brady + Playoffs = Badass. It’s as simple as that. He has an alarmingly mediocre crew of wideouts at his disposal (Jabar Gaffney, Reche Caldwell, Troy Brown & co.) but has been able to produce regardless. The Patty Cakes feature a two-headed, or twenty-fingered if you prefer, rushing attack with rookie Laurence Maroney and battering ram Corey Dillon. The Colts’ rush defense has done well in the playoffs thus far, but I’m inclined to look at the regular season when they allowed a gawd-awful 173 yards per game on the ground. I expect New England to move the ball well on the ground, though their offense definitely relies more on the capable arm of Tom Brady. The Pats’ line will have to contain Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis rushing off the edge. Taking a cue from Brady, I think they’ll be up to the challenge.

Special Teams
One of the highest-profile free agent signings this offseason was the Colts nabbing Adam Vinatieri away from New England. Vinatieri has been by far the NFL’s most valuable kicker over the past few years, and one of the Patriots’ MVPs as well. He’s continued to produce well for the Colts. The Flying Elvii have made Stephen Gostkowski their kicker, and he’s certainly been effective, but hasn’t been faced with the types of high-pressure kicks that Vinatieri has hit. The Pats also have an advantage in the return game, with Laurence Maroney handling kickoffs and Kevin Faulk on punts.

Intangibles
The game is in Indy at the RCA Dome, which would normally benefit the Colts. However, Brady is a perfect 10-0 indoors. Add that to Brady being 12-1 in the playoffs, owning three Super Bowl rings, and Belichick always devising schemes to throw off Manning, and New England has a decided advantage. Talking heads are saying that this is the year that Archie’s son breaks through, but I say that the football gods won’t allow a quarterback who pimps himself in commercials so shamelessly (see above) to win The Big One.

Prediction
Pats 27, Colts 23

Divisional Playoffs: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints

Bolstered by the emergence of Drew Brees as an All-Pro quarterback, an electric set of offensive skill players, and the spirit of a resurgent New Orleans city, the Saints enter the playoffs as the #2 seed in the NFC, having won four of their last five meaningful games (With the bye locked up in Week 17, Coach Sean Payton benched his starters early on en route to a 31-21 loss to Carolina). Brees clearly has stepped up his game this year after being outcast by the Chargers. Helped by a pair of talented RB’s Deuce McAllister and rookie sensation Reggie Bush, as well as young receiving targets, Marques Colston and Devery Henderson, the Saints will pose a threat to the talented Eagles secondary, which will be without Pro Bowl cornerback Lito Sheppard. On the Eagles side, Jeff Garcia has stepped into the right system in Andy Reid’s West Coast offense and has performed admirably. A savvy quarterback who improvises often, Garcia will look to get the ball to Reggie Brown and his speedy counterpart, Donte Stallworth. The key to this game will be ball control and the performance of star running back Brian Westbrook. He publicly stated his disappointment for not being selected to the Pro Bowl, and is looking to take out his aggression on anyone who stands in his way. If Westbrook gets his touches and the Eagles are able to control the ball primarily through the ground game and short passes, they will keep the Saints on their heels. Also, it is imperative that the Eagles don’t get off to a bad start. The Saints were only 4-4 in the regular season, but if they are able to go ahead early in this game, it is over. If the Eagles overcome the “Spirit of Katrina”, they will win this game.

Eagles win, 31-21

Divisional Playoffs: Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens

The emphasis of this game is how the Colts offense featuring the most prolific quarterback of our era, Peyton Manning, two Pro Bowl receivers (Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne), and stud rookie running back, Joseph Addai, performs against Ray Lewis and the most talented defense in the National Football League. This chess match will be fun to watch, as both leaders try to out-scheme each other to get a competitive advantage. After watching Peyton Manning’s performance in last week’s victory against the Chiefs, in which he had a high completion percentage but threw three interceptions, a chink in his seemingly impenetrable armor was revealed. Any and every mistake Manning makes – even if they are few and far between – will be taken advantage of by the Ravens D. On defense, the Colts will be able to pressure Steve McNair with sack specialists, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, but the clutch QB will successfully distribute the ball to tight end, Todd Heap, and receivers, Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton. Jamal Lewis will be the key on the ground as the Colts still struggle against a good offensive line and running back tandem.

Ravens win, 20-17

NFL Divisional Playoffs: Bears vs. Seahawks

This Sunday the Seattle Seahawks will invade the shores of Lake Michigan as they look to defeat the Chicago Bears, the NFC's best regular season team but one with huge question marks. The Bears are well rested, coming off a bye, and playing at home while the Seahawks are coming off of an emotional and phenomenally lucky victory over Dallas in which they did not play particularly well. Yet the 'Hawks remain the defending NFC champions and boast one of the NFL's top talents in running back Shaun Alexander. Let's break down this intriguing matchup:

Seahawks Offense vs. Bears Defense-
The key to the game for the Seahawks is the health of Shaun Alexander. He has been hampered by injuries all season and is playing far below 100%, but his tough inside running is critical for the Seahawks to move the ball against the vaunted Bears defense. Stalwart DT Tommy Harris' injury has dramatically weakened the Bears interior run defense, despite the presence of monster LB Brian Urlacher. If the Seahawks can take advantage of that weakness and stay in 3rd and manageable situations they could move the ball and have some success. But if Alexander is stuffed and Seattle faces many 3rd and long situations they are playing right into the Bears' biggest strengths; a ferocious pass rush coupled with an athletic and talented back 7 of ballhawks that generate preposterous amounts of turnovers and defensive scores. This was exactly what happened in Week 4 when the Seahawks, minus Alexander, were thumped 37-6 by Chicago in a game where QB Matt Hasselbeck threw zero touchdowns to two interceptions and backup RB Maurice Morris rushed for a paltry 35 rushing yards. The Bears have had the best defensive in the NFL all year and even without Harris they are still a force, so they have the significant edge here.
Edge: Bears

Bears Offense vs. Seahawks Defense-
The achilles heel for the Bears all season long has been the inconsistent (at best) play of Quarterback Rex Grossman. Dynamite against mediocre defenses and pathetic against strong ones, he has at times been both the best and worst passer in football. Luckily for him the Bears will look to win this game on the ground, as the Seahawks rank only 22nd in the league in rushing defense and the Bears' Thomas Jones rushed for over 1200 yards this season. Seattle's pass defense has been better, at 16th leaguewide, but their secondary has been devastated by injuries and the Bears solid group of recievers should be able to get open. Muhsin Muhammed is a solid possession guy and Bernand Berrian can catch the home run ball, and the Bears look to get the ball to TE Desmond Clark over the middle on big third downs. The question is whether the Bears Rex Grossman can get them the ball. If he comes to play and the Bears should have no trouble with the Hawks. If he struggles again his season could be over. Its more of a gut feeling with Rex but for this game I give the edge to the Bears.
Edge: Bears

Special Teams: The Bears special teams unit is top-notch, with some of the best kicking and punting around in Robbie Gould and Brady Maynard and dynamite return threat Devin Hester. The Seahawks' Josh Brown is a solid kicker but punter Ryan Plackemier is mediocre, and they have no one who can return the ball like Hester.
Edge: Bears

Intangibles: The forecast is for a light wintry mix in Chicago with the wind whipping off the lake. It could be tough for Seattle to adapt to such conditions. The Seahawks are dramatically better at home than on the road, and Soldier Field is a particularly hostile environment. Mike Holmgren has been through this before and the Seahawks are the defending NFC champs, but they lost three of their last four games to limp into the playoffs and don't even really deserve to be in this game after last week. Lovie Smith has been pulling the right strings all season and will continue to do so this week.
Edge: Bears

Final Prediction: Bears 37-14

Divisional Playoffs: San Diego Chargers vs. New England Patriots

This game features the best team of the 2006 season versus the best team from 2000-2005. The San Diego Chargers finished the regular season with an NFL-best 14-2 record. They have stifled opponents with their aggressive defense, and explosive offense, led by LaDanian Tomlinson. Tomlinson was voted the Offensive Player of the Year and the MVP, and rightfully so after his record-setting season in which he broke the record for total touchdowns (31), rushing touchdowns (28), and points scored (198), which had been held by Paul Hornung for over 40 years. Oh, and he also led the NFL in rushing yards (1,815) and also threw 2 touchdowns. As Tomlinson goes, so do the Chargers, and after romping through the regular season the Bolts plan to continue rolling all the way to the Super Bowl. The Patriots – the best team of this decade – might have something to say about that.

Chargers O vs. Patriots D
This veteran defense will most likely be without safety Rodney Harrison, a vocal leader in the Patriots secondary. Coverage has been an issue with the defensive backs already, and the Chargers will test them throughout. However, the Chargers’ run-oriented offense works well into the hands of the Patriots’ stout run defense. LT will certainly get his touches, as well as his backup, Michael Turner, but at some point in the contest quarterback Philip Rivers will have to throw the ball. He will likely target All-Pro tight end Antonio Gates early and often. He’ll also look to get the ball to Tomlinson in the flat, and to 6’5 receiver Vincent Jackson on a deep pass or two. While the Pats’ Defense will be able to contain the Chargers much better than other teams have during the season, San Diego just has too many weapons.
Advantage: Chargers

Patriots O vs. Chargers D
You better believe Tom Brady feels snubbed after missing out on the Pro Bowl to the young, unproven Rivers. Brady had better numbers than the Chargers QB, but more impressively, he did it with Reche Caldwell as his #1 target along with a suspect offensive line. Speaking of the line, the five men up front will be tested by the Chargers pass rushers, which led the NFL with 61 sacks. Think about this stat: Shawne Merriman finished the season with 17 sacks. Given that he was suspended for four games and still accomplished that feat is both a testament to his skill, and to the power of steroids. Donnie Edwards (142 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 3 INT’s) is a ball hawk and will jump all over Brady if he makes a mistake. The X-factor in this match up is Pats running back, Laurence Maroney. He has steadily improved over his rookie season and is ready to be the feature back. It is only to the team’s benefit that they also have Corey Dillon for veteran leadership. If the Patriots can control the ball with Maroney and Dillon, and stifle the pass rush, they will win this match up, but these goals are easier said than done.
Advantage: Push

Intangibles:
Bill Belichick > Marty Schottenheimer
3 Super Bowl wins in the past 5 years > One Super Bowl appearance in last 10+ years
New England mystique = San Diego weather
Advantage: Patriots

Final Analysis:
The Chargers are a more talented team, but there are a few things working against them. The team as a whole has a relatively small amount of playoff experience and as good as Marty Schottenheimer may be, he has never won the big game. Also, Brady and Belichick are best in pressure-packed situations like this game. That being said, I can’t ignore talent. I also can’t ignore the best player in the NFL, Tomlinson, who will make a name for himself in the playoffs, where legends are made.
Chargers win, 28-24.

NFL Wildcard Predictions

1. Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Colts' defense can't stop any runner these days. This matchup would mean bad news, considering Larry Johnson comes to town. Johnson is the NFL leader in rushing attempts and #2 to Ladanian Tomlinson in rushing yards. However, Trent Green has not performed so well since coming back from injury, and the Chiefs offense has underperformed for weeks. The Colts will be able to limit LJ's production (and by limit, I mean to 150 yards on the ground) by stacking the line and making the Chiefs become one-dimensional and throw the ball. Peyton Manning will have a field day against the Kansas City passing defense. Colts win, 35-21.

2. Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys' glaring issues have been made visable over the past few weeks. Roy Williams, Terrance Newman, and the rest of the secondary has been exposed as being weak against the pass. Tony Romo's quarterback play has returned back to earth, and his improvisational plays have recently lead to costly mistakes. And then there's T.O. and Parcells. Don't get me started. The Cowboys undoubtedly have a lot of overall talent, but the Seahawks have talent...and experience. Matt Hasslebeck has played well in recent weeks, reminding the league of the Pro Bowl quarterback from years past. The four receiver set of Darrell Jackson, Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, and Bobby Engram, combined with running back, Shaun Alexander and a solid offensive line will allow Mike Holmgren to spread out the Cowboys defense. They won't be able to stack the line against Alexander, or help out too much with coverage. The 'Boys will produce on offense, but if something starts to go wrong, they will falter. Seahawks win, 34-24.

Next two coming soon...

2007 AllState Sugar Bowl Preview

Notre Dame returns to the Sugar Bowl tonight for the first time since 1992 seeking to eliminate the bitter taste from their disappointing regular season and restore their program to its former glory. Louisiana State is determined to prevent that as they have been playing arguably the best football in the country over the last six weeks and hope to show the world that they too are among the nation's finest teams. This game also features two of the top quarterbacks in the country in stellar senior Brady Quinn and star junior JaMarcus Russell. Quinn is widely perceived to be the best prospect available in this year's NFL draft, but if Russell outplays him and then decides to come out early he may vault over Quinn in the draft pecking order like Vince Young did to Matt Leinart after last year's Rose Bowl. Now, into the breakdown:

Notre Dame Offense vs. LSU Defense

Brady Quinn has been solid but far from spectacular in his two bowl games, averaging 250 yards a game and completing over 60% of his passes with only one interception but throwing only two touchdown passes combined in those two games, including none last year against Ohio State. He needs to have the confidence to be a playmaker not just a caretaker on this big a stage for the golden domers to have a chance. He will be forced to throw often because his offensive line will not be successful opening holes for Darius Walker, whose gaudy numbers hide his struggles against quality defenses. He averages 95 yards a game and 4.9 yards a carry on the season but against Michigan, Penn State, UCLA, and USC he averages only 48 yards with 2.9 yards per carry. Against those four defenses he scored zero touchdowns. Against the Tigers fierce defensive line, anchored by stud Defensive Tackle Glenn Dorsey, the Irish O-Line will have to play their best game of the season just to make LSU respect the run. There is no way Notre Dame can beat LSU on the ground, but at least posing a threat there is critical because the Tigers' starting linebackers are all sophomores and although they are talented and swarm to the ball they can be sucked in and beaten by play-action. Receiver Jeff Zamardzija is a dynamic talent, and with Rhema McKnight, David Grimes and Tight End John Carlson Notre Dame has an explosive group of weapons for Quinn to get the ball to through the air, which will be the only way for them to move the ball. The secondary will be thin for tonight's game as starting safety Jesse Daniels has been suspended for part or all of the game, but the presence of LaRon Landry alone means this is still a unit to be feared. The four-year starter can do it all, shutting down the run and covering receivers deep. The Irish' best chance for success is if Carlson or another receiver can have a big game forcing Landry to commit to guarding the middle of the field more and then hitting Samardzija or McKnight deep. Both of these units are outstanding, but the slight edge has to go to the Domers.
Slight Edge: Notre Dame

LSU Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense

The Tigers are led by stud Quarterback JaMarcus Russell, who has matured into a much more efficient passer this year, minimizing his mistakes while still retaining his big-play capability. He spreads the ball around to a trio of talented receivers, Dwayne Bowe, Early Doucet, and Craig Davis, all of which display sure hands and the ability to take the ball deep. The rushing attack is a three-headed monster of workhorse Jacob Hester, change of pace speed back Keiland Williams and the bruising Alley Broussard. The Tigers have produced a lot of points against some of the top defenses in the country in winning at Tennessee and at Arkansas, and Notre Dame's defense doesn't have nearly the talent of those teams. Defensive End Victor Abiamiri is a big-time players and Tom Zbikowski is an outstanding run-stuffing safety, but other than those two the Irish defense is generally devoid of playmakers. Ends with the ability to rush the passer like Florida's Ray McDonald have given LSU problems, but the Tigers will be able to double Abiamiri and still contain the rest of Notre Dame's linemen. The Irish secondary was shredded by Michigan, Michigan State, and most recently USC, and it should be no different versus LSU. The Tigers should definitely punish Notre Dame here.
Edge: LSU

Special Teams: LSU is short-handed as dynamic return man Trindon Holliday is suspended for part of the game. That takes away a big-time weapon who took a kick return the distance against Arkansas. LSU's kicking game is suspect, with Colt David only 6/10 on Field Goals this year and only 3/7 from beyond 30 yards. Notre Dame's Zbikowski is a talented returner who can give the Irish an edge in the field position battle, and kicker Carl Gioia has a consistent leg from inside 40 yards, although he is also 1/4 from beyond 40. Notre Dame will have an advantage if this game gets tight.
Edge: Notre Dame

Intangibles: Notre Dame and its vast and loyal fans and alumni travel as well as any group in the nation, but the game will be played in New Orleans and the majority of fans should be Tiger supporters. Notre Dame is also fighting history as they have not won a bowl game since 1994 and are facing a seven game bowl losing streak. LSU on the other hand is familiar with the Sugar Bowl having played and won there twice in the last five years. Notre Dame has only played two teams of the caliber of LSU, and were blown out in both, while LSU has been battletested all season in the rough-and-tumble SEC and has faced and defeated comparable talent before.
Edge: LSU

Prediction: LSU wins 42-28

2007 FedEx Orange Bowl Preview

This year’s Orange Bowl features a match up between a heavily favored 11-1 Louisville team that snuck into the BCS with a late season Rutgers loss, and the surprising 11-2 Demon Deacons of Wake Forest. While both these teams enjoyed plenty of success within their respective conferences, their styles of play could not be any more different.

The Louisville Cardinals come into the January 2nd showdown boasting the 3rd ranked scoring offense in the nation. Led by likely first round pick quarterback Brian Brohm, the Cardinals thrive off of big plays in the passing game. They are not one dimensional, however, as tailback Kolby Smith has done admirably filling in for an injured Michael Bush. After watching this Louisville team several times this season I am very impressed with their ability to pile up points in a hurry. That being said, the defenses they have faced in the Big East could not stop my 8 year-old cousin and his third grade friends.

The Demon Deacons, who captured their first ACC title this season since the Nixon administration, have relied on their defense to keep them in games all year long. Led by an emotionally charged Jon Abbatte at middle linebacker and NFL-ready safety Josh Gattis, this defensive unit has created turnovers and forced field goals all year long. Cornerbacks Alfonso Smith and Riley Swanson have been solid game in and game out playing their aggressive man to man coverage. This secondary knows how to make plays. They will undoubtedly have their work cut out for them in this game with Harry Douglas and the other Cardinal receivers. If they are not careful, they will have memorized the last names and numbers of the Louisville receivers by the end of the night.

On the other side of the ball, young yet poised freshman quarterback Riley Skinner has done well managing games for a Wake Forest offense that prides itself on ball control. I have seen Skinner a lot this fall, both on the field and in the quad, and I am very impressed by his maturation. Wake uses misdirection and a variety of ball carriers to keep defenses off balance. AP coach of the year Jim Grobe will have his hands full keeping the Louisville offense on the sidelines. If up early, the Cardinals may never look back.

Prediction: The Wake Forest secondary just might be up to the task of containing the Louisville passing attack as they did Georgia Tech and Calvin Johnson in the ACC Championship game. Look for the Demon Deacons to capitalize on turnovers and use standout kicker/punter Sam Swank to win the special teams battle. I have never been so impressed by a kicker or punter in my life. Call it bias, but this sports writer finds the Big East to be as over-rated as Angelina Jolie. Yeah, I said it. The clock will not strike midnight for Cinderella in this game. Deacs win, 27-24.

2007 Rose Bowl Preview

Michigan Wolverines (11-1) vs. USC Trojans (10-2)
Whoooooa Nelly! It’s the granddaddy of ‘em all!

Ahem. Pardon me and my Keith Jackson channeling.

It really IS the granddaddy of ‘em all though, the Rose Bowl. The BCS computers, for all their flaws and people wanting to smash them up Office Space-style, gave us a great matchup this year. Michigan and USC both had championship aspirations, but the Trojans fell to crosstown rival UCLA and Michigan was dropped by the preferred college football team of The Sporting Itis, those sweater-vested dynamos from the banks of the Olentangy, the Ohio State Buckeyes. For the sake of feigning an unbiased opinion, I will not mention anything about Lloyd Carr choking in big games, Chad Henne drinking his own urine, or any other such disparaging remark. It’s all true though. Moving on to the game itself…

UM defense vs. USC offense
Michigan’s defense has been much, much, MUCH-ballyhooed, especially its front seven. Until Ohio State tore them up for 503 total yards, the defense had been allowing just 231 yards per game, and less than 30 on the ground. DT Alan Branch is 330 pounds of run plugger in the middle of it all, and DE/OLB LaMarr Woodley is one of the finest pass rushers in the country. The linebacking corps – David Harris, Shawn Crable and Prescott Burgess – is very strong, especially against the run. USC has employed a small army of running backs this year as they’ve tried to replace the production of departed stars Reggie Bush and LenDale White. Chauncey Washington is leading the team with 736 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns, and has freshmen Emmanuel Moody and C.J. Gable helping his cause. As a team, the Trojans have run for a shade over 1600 yards. USC always has a strong offensive line, led this year by junior OT Sam Baker, but I think they’ll struggle to run against the Wolverines. UM is too strong inside and too fast everywhere else.

As good as Michigan’s rush D is, I’m very skeptical about the Wolverine pass defense. CB Leon Hall is allegedly one of the premier cover men in the nation, but I say he’s a bit overrated. Hall and fellow corner Morgan Trent will have their hands full with Trojan wideouts Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith, who form the West Coast’s best receiving tandem. WR Patrick Turner and TE Fred Davis are also big, talented targets, and it’ll be tough for Michigan to match up with them. USC QB John David Booty put up good numbers this year – nearly 3000 yards on 61.9% passing, and 25 touchdowns against 9 interceptions. That said…he just doesn’t inspire me. He has tremendous weapons around him and a great offensive system, but…he just doesn’t inspire me. I can’t see Booty leading a 4^th quarter comeback against this team or making the big play that changes the face of the game.

UM offense vs. USC defense
I really, really, really, really, really like how Michigan RB Mike Hart runs. Some say he’s undersized at 5’9”, but he’s very strongly built and is incredibly difficult to bring down. Much has been made of Michigan’s switch to more zone blocking schemes this year as well as Hart’s cutback ability, and the proof is in the pudding – 1515 yards and 14 TDs for Hart. USC has a very fast, talented defense led by linebackers Keith Rivers and Dallas Sartz, but they’re less than huge in the middle and I think Hart will be able to gash them inside. He’ll be spelled by RBs Brandon Minor, Jerome Jackson and Kevin Grady, all of whom chipped in at least 175 yards and 2 TDs this year.

Wolverine QB Chad Henne isn’t especially flashy, but he’s been very effective in running Michigan’s offense. He tossed for 2199 yards and 20 touchdowns, and is a good decision-maker who will rarely force plays or commit bad turnovers. Sophomore wide receivers Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington are outstanding deep threats – they combined for 68 catches, 1134 yards and 16 TDs. Senior Steve Breaston may have had his best moments as an underclassman (just one touchdown this year), but he’s developed into a nice possession receiver and has always been an explosive kick returner. USC CB Terrell Thomas is the Trojans’ top cover man, but their best pass defense may be the rush of DEs Lawrence Jackson and Brian Cushing off the edge.

Matchups to watch
Michigan CB Leon Hall vs. USC WR Dwayne Jarrett
Michigan DE LaMarr Woodley vs. USC OT Sam Baker
Michigan OT Jake Long vs. USC DE Lawrence Jackson
Michigan QB Chad Henne vs. USC coach Pete Carroll
Michigan coach Lloyd Carr vs. his own big game record
Michigan marching band vs. USC song girls

The prediction
Michigan 34, USC 28

2007 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Preview

Boise State Mustangs (12-0) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (11-2)

This match-up between the Big 12 champions and the undefeated victors of the Western Athletic Conference features two teams who’ve overcome the losses of key personnel to exceed expectations. Only weeks before the 2006 season began, the Sooners kicked their starting quarterback, Rhett Bomar, as well as their starting guard, J.D. Quinn, off of the team for accepting money from boosters. A former top prospect out of Texas, Bomar was expected to take this team to the national championship this year. Head coach of the Sooners, Bob Stoops, was forced to convert wide receiver, Paul Thompson back to quarterback, which he had not played in years. But this season Thompson has performed more than adequately, completing over 60% of his passes, for 2434 yards, 20 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions. The Sooners started off a little slow, with a 3-2 record, but the team’s one point loss to Oregon was highly disputed after an Oregon onside kick was incorrectly ruled in favor of the Ducks, from which they scored the game winning touchdown. A week later, Oklahoma also lost their running back, Heisman Trophy frontrunner, Adrian Peterson – who had amassed nearly 1,000 yards after just 6 games – after he broke his collarbone diving into the end zone. Since the Peterson injury, Oklahoma has gone undefeated with the help of Thompson and newcomer running back, Allen Patrick, running off wins against Missouri, Texas A&M, and Nebraska, all top-25 ranked teams.

On the Boise State side, this team had to deal with losing the head coach, Dan Hawkins, who helped develop the program and decided to leave for Colorado University. New coach, Chris Peterson has stepped in only to lead the team to an undefeated season for the second time in three years. Boise State received only the second BCS bowl bid by a non-BCS conference team (Utah) and the team is ready to prove itself against perennial power, Oklahoma. Led by senior quarterback, Jared Zabransky (66.4 completion pct., 2325 yards, 20 TD, 7 INT) and sophomore running back, Ian Johnson (1613 yards, 24 TD), the Broncos have gone through their season with relative ease, with their only close victories over Wyoming, Hawaii, and San Jose State. Boise is also relatively unproven, having defeated 5 winning teams, but only one from one of the six major conferences (Oregon State).

In this match-up, both teams feature prolific offenses, the question will be whether either defense will be able to stop the opposing offense. While Boise State is undefeated, they have simply not played the caliber of opponents that the Sooners have, and have come close to losing against inferior opponents. The Mustang defense will have trouble containing the combination of Peterson, who returns from injury, and Patrick. The running by this tandem will set up the play action with Thompson having the option of getting the ball to his #1 receiving target, Malcolm Kelly (993 yards, 10 TD), or using his legs to run. Boise will keep this game close with their speed on offense, and hard-nosed defense, but in the end Oklahoma will just have too much talent and Peterson will use this game as a platform to elevate his NFL Draft status for this upcoming year. Oklahoma wins, 31-21.