Whoooooa Nelly! It’s the granddaddy of ‘em all!
Ahem. Pardon me and my Keith Jackson channeling.
It really IS the granddaddy of ‘em all though, the Rose Bowl. The BCS computers, for all their flaws and people wanting to smash them up Office Space-style, gave us a great matchup this year. Michigan and USC both had championship aspirations, but the Trojans fell to crosstown rival UCLA and Michigan was dropped by the preferred college football team of The Sporting Itis, those sweater-vested dynamos from the banks of the Olentangy, the Ohio State Buckeyes. For the sake of feigning an unbiased opinion, I will not mention anything about Lloyd Carr choking in big games, Chad Henne drinking his own urine, or any other such disparaging remark. It’s all true though. Moving on to the game itself…
UM defense vs. USC offense
Michigan’s defense has been much, much, MUCH-ballyhooed, especially its front seven. Until Ohio State tore them up for 503 total yards, the defense had been allowing just 231 yards per game, and less than 30 on the ground. DT Alan Branch is 330 pounds of run plugger in the middle of it all, and DE/OLB LaMarr Woodley is one of the finest pass rushers in the country. The linebacking corps – David Harris, Shawn Crable and Prescott Burgess – is very strong, especially against the run. USC has employed a small army of running backs this year as they’ve tried to replace the production of departed stars Reggie Bush and LenDale White. Chauncey Washington is leading the team with 736 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns, and has freshmen Emmanuel Moody and C.J. Gable helping his cause. As a team, the Trojans have run for a shade over 1600 yards. USC always has a strong offensive line, led this year by junior OT Sam Baker, but I think they’ll struggle to run against the Wolverines. UM is too strong inside and too fast everywhere else.
As good as Michigan’s rush D is, I’m very skeptical about the Wolverine pass defense. CB Leon Hall is allegedly one of the premier cover men in the nation, but I say he’s a bit overrated. Hall and fellow corner Morgan Trent will have their hands full with Trojan wideouts Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith, who form the West Coast’s best receiving tandem. WR Patrick Turner and TE Fred Davis are also big, talented targets, and it’ll be tough for Michigan to match up with them. USC QB John David Booty put up good numbers this year – nearly 3000 yards on 61.9% passing, and 25 touchdowns against 9 interceptions. That said…he just doesn’t inspire me. He has tremendous weapons around him and a great offensive system, but…he just doesn’t inspire me. I can’t see Booty leading a 4th quarter comeback against this team or making the big play that changes the face of the game.
UM offense vs. USC defense
I really, really, really, really, really like how Michigan RB Mike Hart runs. Some say he’s undersized at 5’9”, but he’s very strongly built and is incredibly difficult to bring down. Much has been made of Michigan’s switch to more zone blocking schemes this year as well as Hart’s cutback ability, and the proof is in the pudding – 1515 yards and 14 TDs for Hart. USC has a very fast, talented defense led by linebackers Keith Rivers and Dallas Sartz, but they’re less than huge in the middle and I think Hart will be able to gash them inside. He’ll be spelled by RBs Brandon Minor, Jerome Jackson and Kevin Grady, all of whom chipped in at least 175 yards and 2 TDs this year.
Wolverine QB Chad Henne isn’t especially flashy, but he’s been very effective in running Michigan’s offense. He tossed for 2199 yards and 20 touchdowns, and is a good decision-maker who will rarely force plays or commit bad turnovers. Sophomore wide receivers Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington are outstanding deep threats – they combined for 68 catches, 1134 yards and 16 TDs. Senior Steve Breaston may have had his best moments as an underclassman (just one touchdown this year), but he’s developed into a nice possession receiver and has always been an explosive kick returner. USC CB Terrell Thomas is the Trojans’ top cover man, but their best pass defense may be the rush of DEs Lawrence Jackson and Brian Cushing off the edge.
Matchups to watch
Michigan CB Leon Hall vs. USC WR Dwayne Jarrett
Michigan DE LaMarr Woodley vs. USC OT Sam Baker
Michigan OT Jake Long vs. USC DE Lawrence Jackson
Michigan QB Chad Henne vs. USC coach Pete Carroll
Michigan coach Lloyd Carr vs. his own big game record
Michigan marching band vs. USC song girls
The prediction
Michigan 34, USC 28
1 comment:
I was...really really wrong. And completely underestimated Lloyd Carr's ability to choke in big games.
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