Pitchers and Catchers Report: Tribe Preview (Part 1)

Last year's Indians team was unique in that it outscored its opponents by 88 runs over the course of the season yet failed to win even half of its games. Run differential usually correlates well to winning percentage; the Indians were an anomaly, and in fact one Wall Street Journal article from last summer and at least one ESPN.com journalist called the 2006 Indians "the most unlucky team in baseball." Although it is probably true that the Tribe was better than its record, further statistical digging shows that the team had major flaws. Its overall pitching ranked 7th in the AL in runs allowed, definitely mediocre but still not crippling for a team with such a powerful offense. However, the team ranked second to last in the league in strikeouts and dead last in the league in saves. The team's bullpen was atrocious, and the lack of power arms particularly held the team back. Situations late in games where the team couldn't afford to give up a sacrifice fly and desperately needed a strikeout typically resulted in losses for the Indians, as we offered the strikeout-averse Bob Wickman where most contending teams would bring in a flamethrower from the pen. General Manager Mark Shapiro's biggest efforts to improve the club this off-season focused on rebuilding the bullpen, and while he did not necessarily focus on strikeout pitchers his acquisitions will decide those crucial late game situations that are the difference between champions and chumps. Here is a look at the Tribe's pitching staff:

Rotation:

THE ACE- C.C. Sabathia
Sabathia's inconsistencies continue to frustrate Indians fans and front office alike. His conditioning has always been poor, and as a result he has missed the beginning of the last two seasons with injuries. When he is on his game his combination of stuff and command is as good as any in baseball; see the months of May and August last year, where his ERAs were a microscopic 1.20 and 1.88 respectively. When the big left-hander trusts his power arm and darting slider and doesn't overthrow, focusing on the pinpoint control that he is often capable of, he is the pitcher that promising Royals 3rd baseman Mark Teahen recently called "the toughest pitcher in the American League." But he still has months like last June, when his ERA was a pathetic 7.57. His production may never fully match his potential, but what the frustrated fans are missing is the big picture; Sabathia's ERA of 3.22 still ranked 3rd in the American League. Far from perfect, but still a better than average #1 starter.

Mr. Consistency- Jake Westbrook
Westbrook never gets the credit he deserves. A true workhorse, he has pitched over 200 innings in each of the last three seasons and has won 14, 15, and 15 games. His best statistical season was two years ago, when he posted an ERA of 3.38, but he has always been steady and reliable. A classic sinker-ball pitcher, Westbrook may have a big year as the infield defense has been significantly improved with the additions of Josh Barfield and Andy Marte and more importantly the departures of Ronnie Belliard and Aaron Boone.

The Savvy Veteran- Paul Byrd
The right-handed Byrd has some of the worst stuff on the team, with a fastball lucky to reach the mid-80s and a smattering of unremarkable breaking and offspeed pitching. Yet the crafty Byrd has an uncanny feel for pitching and is a master of the mental aspects of the game. When he has control of his breaking pitches they move enough to confuse opposing hitters and generate weak outs. Another innings eater who will give solid production.

Master of Deception- Cliff Lee
The left-handed Lee had a down year last year; his 4.40 ERA was far above that of his previous season. There is a sense that opposing hitters had adjusted to his style; his stuff is not dominating, and he counts on deceiving hitters through his delivery and changing speeds to flummox batters. At 28 years old his upside is probably limited, although you could do a lot worse for a #4 starter.

The Phenom- Jeremy Sowers
The left-handed Sowers was drafted 6th in the 2005 draft, considered the second-best college pitcher in that draft behind Old Dominion's dazzling Justin Verlander. Although Verlander, now with the Tigers, had a sensational rookie season last year, Sowers was no slouch himself. Called up in mid-season, the former Vanderbilt star had a 3.57 ERA in almost 90 big-league innings before being shut down for the season. Another starter without dominant stuff, he compensates with brilliant control and makeup for a young pitcher. He has been compared to a young Tom Glavine, and while such comparisons are premature he is a fine 5th starter at this point in his career.

BULLPEN

There are a number of pitchers trying out for spots in a crowded Indians bullpen, but here is how I expect it to shake out assuming the Tribe keeps 11 pitchers.

Rafael Betancourt- Played a big role in the bullpen last year, not ideally suited for the set-up role and would be a good middle reliever. Has started in the minors before and could be stretched out to serve as the long man.

Jason Davis- Another candidate for the long reliever role, he is a former starter for the Indians and even won 10 games one year. Since he was converted to the bullpen last year he has improved his control while maintaining his velocity. He posted a 3.74 ERA overall but improved over the course of the season, posting monthly ERAs of 3.86, 2.57, and 0.82 over July, August, and September. Very high upside.

Aaron Fultz- The situational lefty that the Indians lacked last year, the free agent pickup only had a 4.54 ERA last year but boasted a strong K/IP rate (62/71.1). Although he was better against left-handed hitters than righties last year, they still batted .277 off of him, which is less than ideal for a lefty specialist. However the Indians hope he returns to his form of 2005, when Fultz was dominant in posting a 2.24 ERA and lefties hit .220 off of him. The front office will be happy if he settles in somewhere in between those extremes this year.

Roberto Hernandez- A cagey veteran, the 42-year old Hernandez had an ERA of 3.11 and was indispensable for the Mets as they dominated the National League during the regular season. Hernandez only gave up 5 home runs all season, and although Shea Stadium is a much better pitcher's park than Jacobs Field his tendency to keep balls in the yard will play well. Not a big strikeout guy, Hernandez is expected to be the Tribe's bridge to the set-up guy.

Joe Borowski- Brought in to close, Borowski will probably begin the season in the set-up role behind Keith Foulke, although if and when Foulke is injured Borowski is a capable fill-in. The pitcher had a 3.75 ERA with 37 saves for the Marlins with a high K/IP rate (64/69.2). Oddly enough, left-handed hitters hit only .167 against the right-handed Borowski, so manager Eric Wedge will be able to use him for situational matchups as well. Borowski is probably not a championship-caliber closer, but if he has experience in big situations and should be able to hold leads through the late innings.

Keith Foulke- Probably will be the closer out of spring training, and barring injury should stay there through the season. Foulke was a dominant closer earlier in his career, having 8 straight seasons with ERAs below 3 at one point, but the last two seasons have been disasters. Injuries to his knee and elbow caused his mechanics to suffer and Foulke lost his control. However, Foulke was finally healthy in September of 2006 and rolled off 11 straight appearances without yielding a run. If we see that Keith Foulke this season the Indians will have the legitimate hammer at the end of the bullpen that the team hasn't seen since the great Steve Karsay/Paul Shuey combination of early 2001.

Overall the pitching staff looks solid on paper. The group is veteran-laden and has a number of reliable innings-eaters in the rotation with proven bullpen arms to hold leads. Moreover the 'pen has versatility and depth; Borowski, Betancourt, and Davis have all closed before in case Foulke gets injured. The only thing missing is a level of dominance in the front of the rotation and back of the bullpen. Sabathia has the ability to be that dominant ace, but he has to make it happen this year. Foulke has been that dominant closer in the past, but his body may hold him back this year. The bottom line is that this year's bullpen will not be the liability it was last year, and with some good breaks the pitching staff could propel the Tribe to a pennant run.