Look, at this point you know all there is to know about Florida and Ohio State. There’s nothing I can tell you that you haven’t heard Woody Paige screaming at Jay Mariotti on Around the Horn. On paper, Florida is the better team. But as Kenny Mayne says, games aren’t played on paper; they’re played inside television sets.
Florida has the pony-tailed lightning rod for hate, five starters averaging 10+ and a coach who absolutely did not inspire me when I saw him speak at Five Star basketball camp. Ohio State has The Big Stoic, the son of a triple jumper and a coach who lives and dies by the five second rule.
No doubt your local newspaper has run a story about how Florida’s football team demolished the Buckeyes in the BCS title game, as though it has a bearing on tonight’s contest. I suspect that Ohio State is eager to avenge their gridiron defeat, and that the Gators think a victory would indicate a wholesale owning of the city of Columbus.
(Side note: shouldn’t the athletic directors at the likes of Duke, Georgetown, Kansas and other schools with traditionally great basketball programs and horrid football programs be furious that these two football factories are in the title game? Traditional “football schools” often field below-average to average basketball teams, but what about the recent ascensions by the likes of Texas, Tennessee, and USC in addition to the teams playing tonight? Shouldn’t the “basketball schools” be concerned? Most basketball schools either have awful football teams, Division I-AA football teams or no football teams. Wouldn’t people be making more noise if it were the other way around? What if Indiana became a Big Ten football power or North Carolina routinely knocked off Miami and Florida State (you know, back when Miami and Florida State were good and it was surprising if they lost)? Wouldn’t Kornheiser and Wilbon spend five good minutes discussing it with Dickie V? I know I’ve gone way off track, but am I off base? I say no.)
Anywho, here’s a quick run-through of how these teams match up.
Florida has two legit post guys in Al Horford and Chris Richard, so they should always have at least one capable defender on Greg Oden, as well as someone to draw fouls from him. Joakim Noah isn’t strong enough to guard Oden, but he’s a good weakside shot-blocker and is quick enough to defend on the perimeter. Corey Brewer is sort of like Tayshaun Prince defensively: long arms, quick feet, weighs 106 pounds. Lee Humphrey is like JJ Redick after six drinks. Taurean Green is a steady point man, good at everything, great at nothing.
Ohio State lives and dies with Oden. If he gets in early foul trouble again, this game won’t be any closer than when these teams played in December. Othello Hunter and Matt Terwilliger are decent big guys, and have fun-to-say names, but they're not on the same level as Horford, Noah and company. Mike Conley could be the best point guard in the country, and has gotten better with every game. Either Ron Lewis, Ivan Harris or Jamar Butler always seems to come up big, and tonight they need to.
My random predictions for the night: the referees will be wary of getting killed in the media and won’t whistle Oden for two quick fouls. Lee Humphrey will struggle from 3-point land early on and become tentative later in the game. The Horford-Oden matchup will be better than the Hibbert-Oden matchup was. Joakim Noah will pound his chest and scream before the first TV timeout. The teams will combine for over 10 blocked shots. Mike Conley will be the best player on the floor, outplaying Taurean Green. But Ron Lewis will be the high scorer.
Hardly anyone outside the Buckeye State is picking Ohio State, and with reason. Florida simply looks like the better team. They’re certainly good, but they don’t give off a vibe of greatness (ESPN.com’s Bomani Jones had a good column on this today). There’s no pressure on the Buckeyes; by making it this far, they’ve done more than enough to have a successful season. Florida, on the other hand, has had this expectation all year. If they lose, they’re a failure. Between Joakim Noah’s girly screaming and that god-awful chomp, they’ve got karma going against them. I’m going against them too. Call me a homer, because to paraphrase the great Ray Zalinsky, that’s what I am, and that's who I care about.
Ohio State wins, 76-71
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