Cavs Searching for Success

Like many Cleveland sports fans starved for good teams to cheer for, I bought into all the Cavs hype this fall and thought they were a legit championship contender. After all, we did stretch the Pistons to their limit last spring and showed the world that we were not to be taken lightly. Plus, we had The Chosen One, LeBron James, the one weapon that no other team could match. The Cavs play was uneven for much of the early going, but I wrote their shortcomings off as merely the result of a slow start, and after they won 8 of 9 games around the New Year it seemed their problems were behind them. But the last month has exposed the Cavs as a team with major and obvious flaws.

Since beating Sacramento on January 9th the Cavs are 7-8. Its true many of those losses were on an extended road trip, but as my colleague Will Gibson noted earlier on The Itis, losses to the likes of Portland and Seattle are unacceptable no matter where they're played. Recent losses to Miami, Detroit, and Phoenix revealed that the Cavs as presently constructed are not contenders. ESPN's Rumor Central reported that Cavs guard Larry Hughes, once thought to be the Pippen to LeBron's MJ, is unhappy with the way he is being utilized by coach Mike Brown and is beginning to quietly voice his frustrations to the organization. The contract Z signed just a year and a half ago is starting to look like an albatross, as his production has fallen off dramatically and he is still owed almost 40 million dollars over the next 3 and a half seasons. Worst of all the rock of the organization, LeBron, is struggling. His scoring has dipped and his free-throw percentage has plummeted. This season seems to be taking a toll on him the most and is showing that no man, no matter how superhuman, can do it alone.

Owner Dan Gilbert will not settle for anything else than contention from this team, and he will mandate that GM Danny Ferry do something very soon to right the ship. From the Itis' perspective, there are two directions he can go; dump the captain or can the crew.

OPTION A: FIRE COACH MIKE BROWN

Coach Brown came from Indiana with a reputation as a defensive guru who would make the Cavs a hard-nosed, gritty defensive team like the Pacers or Spurs. Last year's team was actually slightly worse defensively than the previous year's Brendan Malone/Paul Silas' edition, but this year's squad has made a major leap from 16th in the league to 7th in opponent's ppg. However, the problem with coach Brown is his complicated and rigid offensive system. Brown prefers to slow the game down and grind it out in the half-court, dumping it low to Z or giving it to LeBron or Hughes on the wing and having them attack. However, often the play breaks down and results to having LeBron with the ball in his hands on the perimeter and everyone else standing and watching. Many would prefer a coach that let the Cavs run up and down and use their athleticism to score easy points.

However, a running offense won't be successful without a solid point guard to push the tempo, which the Cavs are clearly lacking. Brown could make the argument that it is Eric Snow's offensive ineptitude that is holding back his offense, as defenders don't respect his outside shot and sag back to double LeBron on the wing and cut off lanes to the basket. Many would prefer breaking up the Cavs as presently constructed.

OPTION B: SHAKE UP THE CAVS

Obviously LeBron is not going anywhere, and because of their contracts veterans Eric Snow (5.5 million a year until 2009) and Ilgauskas (9.2 million until 2010) aren't going anywhere either. The Cavs best trade assets are probably Drew Gooden (who has a short-term deal and has been very productive in relatively few minutes), young, cheap, and promising talents Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic, and the injury-prone, expensive, yet undeniably talented Larry Hughes. Each has their merits; Gooden is a solid defender and good rebounder who makes the most of his scoring opportunities, Varejao and Pavlovic are young and promising talents who could blossom later in their careers and Hughes is a proven playmaker and defender who has been a big-time scorer in the past. However, Varejao and Pavlovic will both be free agents after this season and re-signing both of them would probably put the Cavs into the luxury tax, so dealing one of them might make more fiscal sense. Hughes has been a major disappointment since coming from the Wizards before last season, as he has struggled to stay on the court and to put the ball in the basket when he has played. His scoring is significantly down from his career high of 22.0 ppg in 2004-2005, and he has struggled to mesh with LeBron James and the Cavs system. A change of scenery now may be best before he loses any more trade value.

The Cavs single most glaring need is a point guard to run the show and allow LeBron to play off the ball and be a finisher. Some point guards who could be available for the right price include Andre Miller, Mike Bibby, and Earl Watson. Bibby is a star player with experience who is a prolific scorer, shooter, and floor leader but is on thin ice with management and on the trading block, while Miller is a solid starting point guard in his own right who could be had from the rebuilding Sixers. Watson is not an established starter and would be the easiest to trade for, and he has been productive over his career and would be a far better option than anything the Cavs currently have. Here is a trade scenario for each that would make some sense for both teams (or try your own using ESPN.com's Trade Machine).

Cavs trade Hughes, Varejao, and Ira Newble to Sacramento for Mike Bibby and Kenny Thomas
Hughes' salary is a good match for Bibby's, but no matter how disgruntled Bibby is the Kings wouldn't give him up straight up for Hughes. Varejao gives Sacramento a good young big to build around and Hughes' slashing, athletic style would go well in Sacramento's running offense like Bonzi Wells' did last year. Kenny Thomas is not as athletic or talented as Varejao but replaces some of his inside muscle, and Bibby is the perfect point guard for Mike Brown and the Cavs. Ira Newble is only worth his expiring contract and gives the Kings some cap relief after this season.

Cavs trade Drew Gooden, Daniel Gibson, and Ira Newble to Philadelphia for Andre Miller
The Sixers currently start Steven Hunter at the 4, and Gooden will give them better rebounding and scoring and help solidify would could be a decent frontcourt. The Sixers are playing for the lottery, and scoring Gibson to groom as a potential starter will both increase their talent base and give them a better shot at Durant/Oden. Newble is included to make the cap numbers work, and Andre Miller returns to Cleveland to be the reliable floor leader they have craved since he last left.

Cavs trade Sasha Pavlovic, Daniel Gibson, and Ira Newble to Seattle for Earl Watson.
Pavlovic will give Seattle the athletic wing they have lacked, and a lineup of Luke Ridnour, Ray Allen, Pavlovic, Rashard Lewis, and Nick Collison will certainly put points on the board. The athletic Gibson will be a good change of pace off the bench to Ridnour, and Newble is again included just to make the numbers work. Watson averages about 8 points and 6 assists in limited minutes for the Sonics, and is sort of a rich man's Eric Snow.

That sort of sums up the state of the Cavs right now - their current starting point guard is a poor man's Earl Watson.