**Click Image to See Larger Bracket -- Now in color! **It's that wonderful time o' the year, ladies and gentiles! The NCAA Tournament is upon us. After devising a brilliant, intricate system for choosing the winner of all 63 games (64 if you include the play-in, which we picked correctly...of course!), we breezed through the brackets with incredible ease, and now present the picks to you, our faithful followers. So scrap whatever you may have thought was the winning combination, scribble down these choices, and walk around sticking your chest out like a pompous ass who thinks he knows all about college basketball.
And if you don't have 20/10 vision, just give the above bracket a little clickaroo and it will come to you in giant, stunning, high-definition internet.
AND, if you're not convinced enough to take our picks at face value, allow David A. and myself to justify ourselves with some brief explanations. We'll address the early-round upsets that everyone loves so much, as well as the picks that matter the most - the Final Four.
(Note: Teams in bold denote they won for the particular round of interest)
MIDWEST
Butler came flying out of the gates this year, beating Notre Dame, Indiana, Tennessee and Gonzaga in November. However, they’ve split their last eight games and lack the all-important momentum entering the tourney. Old Dominion got an at-large bid out of the Colonial Athletic Association, thanks in large part to a big win at Georgetown. Valdas Vasylius is the guy that makes the Monarchs go, scoring 15.8 per game. The 12-5 games always produce upsets, and this one has as good a chance as any.
Winthrop almost had the upset of the tournament last year, suffering a heartbreaking loss as a #15 to #2 Tennessee in the first round. The Eagles bring back an experienced squad (their top seven scorers are juniors or seniors) that’s still hurting from that defeat. Winthrop’s only four losses this year were to North Carolina, Maryland, Wisconsin and Texas A&M. And those were all on the road. They’ve since won 18 straight, and have an inside-out game that will prove to be too much for Notre Dame.
All of the talking heads are raving about Florida’s shot at going back-to-back. It does look like they have the easiest road of any #1 seed to Atlanta. BUT, if they meet Arizona in the second round, the Wildcats have the athleticism and talent to hang with them. Lute Olson’s club has criminally underachieved this year, but they have what you need to win. Experienced point guard? Check; senior Mustafa Shakur led the Pac-10 in assists. Solid big guy? Check; 6-10 senior Ivan Radenovic averaged 15.2 points and 7.6 rebounds. Go-to scorer? Check; Marcus Williams (16.8 ppg) and Chase Budinger (15.6) both have the talent and versatility to put points up on anyone. Coaching? Check; Lute Olson is one of eight coaches to have been in five Final Fours. The Gators are obviously talented, but there’s always one big dog that bows out early. Florida could be it.
Maryland in the Final Four? What is this, 2002? Juan Dixon and Lonny Baxter are gone, but Gary Williams and his sweat-stained suits remain. DJ Strawberry has emerged as a leader (are we sure this is Darryl’s kid?) and shut-down defender for the Terps, who were the nation’s hottest team before their puzzling loss to Miami in the ACC Tournament. James Gist and Ekene Ibekwe give Maryland a solid inside presence, and guards Mike Jones and Greivis Vasquez are both good ballhandlers on the perimeter. The University of Mass Destruction’s veteran leadership could very well take them all the way to Atlanta.
Bits and pieces: Georgia Tech’s freshmen keep them in it, but they can’t top the Runnin’ Rebels…Wisconsin stifles Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in the first round, but can’t score enough to get by hot-shooting Oregon…Davidson’s Stephen Curry gets his points, but DJ Strawberry bothers him into a poor shooting night…My Miami Redhawks (I'm an MU student) put a scare into the Ducks, but just don’t have the firepower to stick with them.
WEST
Virginia Tech may be the biggest enigma of the NCAA Tourney. The Hokies swept #1 seed UNC, beat Duke, and Maryland but got blown out by BC (80-59) and lost to NC State not once (70-59), not twice (81-56), but thrice (72-64)! That being said, the Hokies should beat the Illini, which boasts one of the least-talented squads of the at-large teams. I think Jim Boeheim might take issue with the Illini being here. Oh well, good luck in the NIT!
Southern Illinois beat up on a Final Four team, the Washington University [in St. Louis] Bears. Well how could we say this? The tourney hasn't even started...well it has for Division III, and while the Bears are talented, they aren't exactly Holy Cross. Hailing from the Patriot League, we have confidence in the Crusaders; the champion has won in the first round each of the past two years (see: Bucknell over Arkansas, 2006; Bucknell over Kansas, 2005).
We could imagine Greg Gumbel trying to find a way to paint the battle between the Duke Blue Devils and the Pittsburgh Panthers as something other than what it is: two programs that have a history of success over the past decade, but have struggled mightily in scoring points and just aren’t that talented this year. Pitt center Aaron Gray will be limited by the depth of Duke’s big men. Without Gray, Pitt is limited in the scoring department. Duke wins in a low-scoring bout.
The tradition-rich programs of Duke and UCLA meet in the Sweet 16, where Ben Howland seems to have both the skill and experience advantage. The Bruins feature one of the best floor managers in the country, Darren Collison and All-American guard, Aaron Afflalo. We feel that UCLA will take advantage of their superior guards and last year’s breakout player, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute will make a strong impact.
Kansas potentially has five players that will one day play in the NBA. The Jayhawks have a balanced scoring distribution (5 players score between 9 and 13 points per game) and a more experienced squad after last year’s early exit. Julian Wright is one of the most talented players in the tourney and will prove so in the big stage. The talent and success in clutch situations (see: Kansas vs. Texas in the Big 12 Championship game) will allow the ‘Hawks to get the upper hand in a close one.
Bits and Pieces: Virginia Commonwealth and Wright State have potential to upset Duke and Pitt, respectively. Eric Maynor and VCU have an opportunity to exploit Paulus (The basketball version of Rex “Tex” Grossman), McRoberts and Co. and Wright State is one of the hottest teams in the country.
EAST
Arkansas is being called one of the worst teams in the tournament, undeserving of a bid, and should just feel lucky to be there. Thing is, the underachieving big-conference teams that get in at the last minute always seem to prove their doubters wrong. The Hogs had a dreadful mid-season run, but ended the year with five straight SEC wins before falling to Florida in the conference tournament. USC is talented, but Trojan fans should look forward to the OJ Mayo era instead. You know, until it ends prematurely after a huge booster scandal.
North Carolina and Texas in the Sweet Sixteen. This could be the game during which Dick Vitale’s head actually explodes. Both teams are led by precocious youngsters, but Kevin Durant is in a class by himself. Carolina’s Brandan Wright looks to be the perfect counterpart for Durant – tall, lanky, and quick. But the reasoning behind this pick is that Durant is basically destined for greatness, and that NCAA Tournament wins over New Mexico State and Arkansas do not equal greatness. The Tar Heels have more talent overall; Tyler Hansbrough should have his way inside, and their bench is certainly deeper. UNC has the coaching advantage too. Roy Williams is one of the top coaches in the nation, and Rick Barnes realizes that he has the most talented player in America on his team only occasionally. But all of that logic aside, this is the game in which Kevin Durant puts the cap on one of the greatest individual seasons in recent memory.
If Maryland was the nation’s hottest team, then Georgetown now is the nation’s hottest team. The Hoyas have won 15 of their last 16, including five wins over ranked opponents. Roy Hibbert is a mountain of a man in the middle, and he alters more shots than anyone east of Greg Oden. Jonathan Wallace needs to have a big tournament for Georgetown to make it all the way to the Final Four; you just can’t win without solid guard play. But the one player who can steal some of Durant’s spotlight is Jeff Green. The 6-9 junior can do a little bit of everything, and has been playing extremely well as of late. Every top team needs a leader, and Green is just that for the John Thompson III’s team.
Bits and pieces: Tom Izzo teams always perform well, and Michigan State tops Marquette…Washington State is not a good #3 seed, but they still manage to make the Sweet Sixteen…Texas Tech beats Boston College, Bob Knight berates reporters with a hint of a smile…Vanderbilt beats George Washington in the worst-played game of the tournament…
SOUTH
In the battle of middle-to-southern Ohio, Ohio State shouldn't have too much trouble handling Oklahoma transfer (and Columbus Brookhaven High School graduate) Drew Lavender and the Xavier Musketeers, but it should be noted that the game is played not far away from Xavier in Lexington, Kentucky.
The athleticism and versatility of the Memphis Tigers should neutralize Nick Fazekas and the Nevada Wolfpack. While many don't predict Memphis to make it too far due to their soft schedule, they still have won 22-straight games. Calipari has this team ready.
Acie Law IV will have something to say in this tournament. The star player for the Aggies has proven to be one of the most clutch players in the country. His rainbow three over Kevin Durant in their most recent game was arguably the top play of the season. Texas A&M should handle Memphis in the Sweet 16.
Ohio State's size will be too much for A&M. The talented guards for each side neutralize each other, but the deciding factor in this Elite 8 matchup will be Old Man River, Greg Oden. Throughout the season, he hasn't played big in big games. Defenses have swarmed him and he hasn't yet responded well to the pressure. This game should be his defining moment, as he helps lead his team into the championship game.
Bits and Pieces: Similar to the experts and pundits that often get these brackets completely wrong, we picked most of the favorites in this bracket. The lone exception was picking Texas A&M over the Memphis Calipari Tigers. We had long debates on whether Nevada would beat Creighton or if Albany could upset Virginia and Jim Calhoun's protege, Coach Dave Leitao. In the end, we felt that the lower seeds in this bracket just weren't that good.
FINAL FOUR
We're in Atlanta! The hot streak of Maryland may finally end in the National Semifinal game, as a simply better Kansas Jayhawk team comes to town and plays the Terps tough. Each team has similar strengths in balanced scoring, hard-nosed defense, and excellent coaching, but Kansas also has NBA prospects. Gary Williams might sweat through 3 shirts, but he may have some trouble stopping Rush, Wright, and Chalmers.
The Georgetown Hoyas and Ohio State Buckeyes have two of the best true big men in the business in Roy Hibbert and Greg Oden, respectively. Assuming the defense of these two neutralize each other, the primary factor will be the guard play, which the Buckeyes have in abundance with Mike Conley Jr., Daequan Cook, Ron Lewis, and Jamar Butler. Georgetown is a major liability in this department, and while they do feature star swingman, Jeff Green, the glaring lack of a true point guard will prove costly.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Drew Gooden's alma mater, Kansas, lacks a dominant big man from preventing Mr. Oden from having a big game. That being said, in every other facet of the game, the Jayhawks are more than adequate in producing points to offset this. When KU played Kevin Durant, the recipe for winning wasn't to stop the star, but to limit the other players' impact on the game instead. The length of Rush, Wright, and Arthur will limit the effectiveness of the Buckeyes supporting cast, as shots will be contested and it will be tougher to drive on this team. In the end, the National Championship will be a stage for Julian Wright to boost his draft status the way Carmelo Anthony did a few years ago.
And all along we thought it'd be Durant.
