Conference Playoffs: Colts vs. Patriots

The Patriots have owned the Colts over the past five years or so, much like the Yankees did to the Red Sox. Many pundits (read: mouth with microphone in front of it) feel that this is Indy’s version of the 2004 ALCS, a chance to exorcise their demons and advance for a chance at that elusive championship. They point to the excellent play of the Colts’ defense as of late, as well as this Patriots team being the weakest in recent memory. So is this it, the game in which the Horseshoes will triumph over the Patty Cakes; the game in which Peyton Manning finally beats Tom Brady in the playoffs; the game in which Tony Dungy topples Bill Belichick; the game in which Manning will break the record for most commercials starred in in one three-hour span?

I say no, no, no and yes, respectively.

The Colts have beaten the Pats in their past two meetings, but when it comes right down to it, I just can’t pick against Brady and Belichick in the playoffs. I hate ‘em both, but they handle their business on the biggest stages. And for the sake of nothing in particular, let’s break it down in a rigorous unsophisticated manner.

Colts O vs. Pats D
He’s played much like feces over the past two weeks, but Peyton “Cut that meat!” Manning has been the NFL’s most prolific passer for much of his career. Of course, that traditionally changes when he plays the Patriots, particularly in the playoffs. Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne make up the league’ best 1-2 receiving tandem, but what the Colts lack this year is a quality third receiver, unless you want to include receiver/old white guy Ricky Proehl or tight end Dallas Clark. And I don’t. Indy’s running game is a two-headed attack, or four-legged if you prefer, with rookie Joseph Addai and average Dominic Rhodes. The Patriots’ secondary is beaten up, with Rodney Harrison questionable, Eugene Wilson out and the likes of Chad Scott filling in the rest of the spots. The Colts should be able to rack up some nice yardage in the passing game, but Belichick’s schemes always seem to force Manning into a couple crucial mistakes.

Pats O vs. Colts D
Tom Brady + Playoffs = Badass. It’s as simple as that. He has an alarmingly mediocre crew of wideouts at his disposal (Jabar Gaffney, Reche Caldwell, Troy Brown & co.) but has been able to produce regardless. The Patty Cakes feature a two-headed, or twenty-fingered if you prefer, rushing attack with rookie Laurence Maroney and battering ram Corey Dillon. The Colts’ rush defense has done well in the playoffs thus far, but I’m inclined to look at the regular season when they allowed a gawd-awful 173 yards per game on the ground. I expect New England to move the ball well on the ground, though their offense definitely relies more on the capable arm of Tom Brady. The Pats’ line will have to contain Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis rushing off the edge. Taking a cue from Brady, I think they’ll be up to the challenge.

Special Teams
One of the highest-profile free agent signings this offseason was the Colts nabbing Adam Vinatieri away from New England. Vinatieri has been by far the NFL’s most valuable kicker over the past few years, and one of the Patriots’ MVPs as well. He’s continued to produce well for the Colts. The Flying Elvii have made Stephen Gostkowski their kicker, and he’s certainly been effective, but hasn’t been faced with the types of high-pressure kicks that Vinatieri has hit. The Pats also have an advantage in the return game, with Laurence Maroney handling kickoffs and Kevin Faulk on punts.

Intangibles
The game is in Indy at the RCA Dome, which would normally benefit the Colts. However, Brady is a perfect 10-0 indoors. Add that to Brady being 12-1 in the playoffs, owning three Super Bowl rings, and Belichick always devising schemes to throw off Manning, and New England has a decided advantage. Talking heads are saying that this is the year that Archie’s son breaks through, but I say that the football gods won’t allow a quarterback who pimps himself in commercials so shamelessly (see above) to win The Big One.

Prediction
Pats 27, Colts 23