1. This group of freshmen is possibly the best class ever. With Kevin Durant (Texas), Greg Oden and the "Thad Five" (OSU), Brandan Wright (UNC), Thaddeus Young/Javaris Crittenton (GT), and others making a large impact on the success of their programs, the youth are making names for themselves on the national stage. The David Stern rule, keeping many of them in school for at least a year has worked so far in the college game. If most of them stay in school for more than just a year or two, they will finally replenish the well of talent that had been relatively dry for the past few years in college basketball.
2. The Pac-10 is on the rise. With the 2nd highest Conference RPI (only behind the ACC) and 5 teams in the Top 25 (UCLA, Oregon, Arizona, Washington State, and USC), this conference’s depth can no longer be questioned. Barring unforeseen injuries, UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona will go far in the NCAA Tournament with their experienced stars.
3. The race for the Big Ten has already been determined between Wisconsin and Ohio State, with Indiana still having a chance. It’s the classic match-up of Wisconsin’s senior-laden squad against talented youth of the Buckeyes. The Badgers already won a close one in Madison, 72-69. When this game is played in Columbus on 2/25, however, the Buckeyes will come on top as a result of the others finally gelling with Mr. Oden. The Badgers will get the last laugh in the Big Ten Championship game in Chicago, a place where a little big game experience can go a long way. It will also be the venue where Alando Tucker makes his push for National Player of the Year (see below).
4. For an incredibly young squad, Duke doesn’t look half bad. With wins over Georgetown and Gonzaga early in the year, and a close, although disputed win over Clemson, the Blue Devils are still a solid team. But, they haven’t played the toughest teams yet. The upcoming stretch against Boston College, Virginia, Florida State, UNC, and Maryland will define their season. Over this stretch, Duke will go 2-3 and prove that they may not be able to contend with the top of the crop just yet.
5. Aaron Brooks (Oregon), Drew Neitzel (Michigan State), Randolph Morris (Kentucky), and Mario Boggan (Oklahoma State) are four of the most improved players in the country. After his poor junior season, Brooks is one of the best point guards in the country, scoring 18.4 points, 4.7 assists, and 3.9 rebounds per game. He will be a 1st team All-American, along with Boggan.
6. Roy Hibbert, the next great big man to come out of Georgetown hasn’t been talked about much after his preseason feature on the cover of Sports Illustrated. He has scored a modest 11.8 points and 5.8 rebounds, but has 2.5 blocks and is shooting an incredible 70% from the field. His most recent outing against Cincinnati – 26 points and 11-rebounds on 11-13 shooting from the field – should bolster his performance in the 2nd half of the season, where he will challenge Aaron Gray (Pitt), Russell Carter (Notre Dame) and Demetris Nichols (Syracuse) for Big East Player of the Year.
7. UConn is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament after their 4-game losing streak in Big East play. They have a current record of 13-7 (only 2-5 in the Big East Conference). If they don’t receive an NCAA bid, it will be only the 4th time in 18 years that this has happened. They will squeak into the tourney this year but next year the Huskies will be back in full force competing for a championship.
8. LSU is also struggling in the SEC with a 13-6 record (2-3 Conference), but everything is alright as long as a trimmed down Glen “Big Baby” Davis keeps performing at a high level. The recent loss to Vanderbilt hurts, but LSU will be fine. Expect them to make noise again in the
tournament.9. Once again, Memphis has an impressive regular season record, but this season the team tested itself against the likes of Arizona, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Gonzaga. Regular season games against these perennial powers will help the team as it advances to the postseason.
10. Nevada, Butler, Southern Illinois, George Washington, and Akron have excelled as mid-majors this year. Unfortunately for this batch, there will be no George Mason this year. There is too much talent at the top.
11. Juan Palacios (Louisville), Greg Paulus (Duke), and Jeff Green (G’Town) have been three of the biggest disappointments of the season. Their draft stocks will drop due to poor play.
12. The Big 12 has the best set of coaches in the country. When you look at the top half of the conference, the teams feature coaches with the likes of Bob Knight, Rick Barnes, Bob Huggins, Bill Self, Sean Sutton, and relative unknown Billy Gillispie (Texas A&M) – all of which are at the top of their profession. Kansas features arguably the best starting lineup in the NCAA, with guards, Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush and forwards, Darrell Arthur and Julian Wright all scoring in double figures. With six teams all within one game of the best record, the next month, the Big 12 will feature by far the most exciting regular season race. Key games will be Texas at Texas Tech on 1/31, Texas A&M at Kansas on 2/3, Oklahoma State at Texas on 2/12, Texas A&M at Oklahoma State on 2/21.
13. Kevin Durant currently is, and will be the National Freshman of the Year. Greg Oden will make a surge toward the end of the year, as his injured wrist will be healed, his offensive game will contintue to develop, and he can even decide whether he wants to shoot free throws right-handed or left-handed.
14. Alando Tucker is the midseason MVP, but Kevin Durant will also be the National Player of the Year, beating out Tucker, Boggan, and Tyler Hansbrough (UNC) a.k.a. “Psycho T”.
15. Florida, Wisconsin, UCLA, and UNC are the top four teams in the AP poll today. Looking at the proven leaders on these squads, all four teams will advance to the Elite Eight in March/April. Oh, and UNC will win the National Championship.
Now, let's see how wrong I am in two months.
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