Thursday, January 11, 2007

Divisional Playoffs: San Diego Chargers vs. New England Patriots

This game features the best team of the 2006 season versus the best team from 2000-2005. The San Diego Chargers finished the regular season with an NFL-best 14-2 record. They have stifled opponents with their aggressive defense, and explosive offense, led by LaDanian Tomlinson. Tomlinson was voted the Offensive Player of the Year and the MVP, and rightfully so after his record-setting season in which he broke the record for total touchdowns (31), rushing touchdowns (28), and points scored (198), which had been held by Paul Hornung for over 40 years. Oh, and he also led the NFL in rushing yards (1,815) and also threw 2 touchdowns. As Tomlinson goes, so do the Chargers, and after romping through the regular season the Bolts plan to continue rolling all the way to the Super Bowl. The Patriots – the best team of this decade – might have something to say about that.

Chargers O vs. Patriots D
This veteran defense will most likely be without safety Rodney Harrison, a vocal leader in the Patriots secondary. Coverage has been an issue with the defensive backs already, and the Chargers will test them throughout. However, the Chargers’ run-oriented offense works well into the hands of the Patriots’ stout run defense. LT will certainly get his touches, as well as his backup, Michael Turner, but at some point in the contest quarterback Philip Rivers will have to throw the ball. He will likely target All-Pro tight end Antonio Gates early and often. He’ll also look to get the ball to Tomlinson in the flat, and to 6’5 receiver Vincent Jackson on a deep pass or two. While the Pats’ Defense will be able to contain the Chargers much better than other teams have during the season, San Diego just has too many weapons.
Advantage: Chargers

Patriots O vs. Chargers D
You better believe Tom Brady feels snubbed after missing out on the Pro Bowl to the young, unproven Rivers. Brady had better numbers than the Chargers QB, but more impressively, he did it with Reche Caldwell as his #1 target along with a suspect offensive line. Speaking of the line, the five men up front will be tested by the Chargers pass rushers, which led the NFL with 61 sacks. Think about this stat: Shawne Merriman finished the season with 17 sacks. Given that he was suspended for four games and still accomplished that feat is both a testament to his skill, and to the power of steroids. Donnie Edwards (142 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 3 INT’s) is a ball hawk and will jump all over Brady if he makes a mistake. The X-factor in this match up is Pats running back, Laurence Maroney. He has steadily improved over his rookie season and is ready to be the feature back. It is only to the team’s benefit that they also have Corey Dillon for veteran leadership. If the Patriots can control the ball with Maroney and Dillon, and stifle the pass rush, they will win this match up, but these goals are easier said than done.
Advantage: Push

Intangibles:
Bill Belichick > Marty Schottenheimer
3 Super Bowl wins in the past 5 years > One Super Bowl appearance in last 10+ years
New England mystique = San Diego weather
Advantage: Patriots

Final Analysis:
The Chargers are a more talented team, but there are a few things working against them. The team as a whole has a relatively small amount of playoff experience and as good as Marty Schottenheimer may be, he has never won the big game. Also, Brady and Belichick are best in pressure-packed situations like this game. That being said, I can’t ignore talent. I also can’t ignore the best player in the NFL, Tomlinson, who will make a name for himself in the playoffs, where legends are made.
Chargers win, 28-24.

No comments: